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Sunbet’s 2024 South Africa National Election Odds: ANC’s Cyril Ramaphosa to Remain President

Sunbet, a division of Sun International, has released its 2024 South Africa National Election results odds, which predict the African National Congress (ANC) will receive between 40% and 45% of the vote.

The odds also place Cyril Ramaphosa as the firm favourite to remain president, followed by John Steenhuisen and Paul Mashatile.

According to Sunbet’s Chief Operating Officer (COO), Gideon Mann, there is a level of science behind measuring the sentiment of the voting public. “We believe betting outcomes tend to give a more accurate picture of potential outcomes than election polls,” he said.

The odds show that the ANC is expected to receive between 40% and 45% of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) expected to get between 20% and 22.5%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) between 11% and 13%. The odds for the new MK party show that there is no clarity on how much of the vote it is expected to get.

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The prediction model used by Sunbet is based on science and mathematical analysis, which provides a more accurate picture of potential outcomes than election polls. This is because betting outcomes tend to be more representative of the public’s sentiment, as people are more likely to place bets on outcomes that they believe are likely to occur. South Africa Election Odds

The chart below provides an overview of the odds for the 2024 South African National Election results.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) will also be offering a sneak peek at the election results long before the official results are released. The CSIR has built an election night prediction model for the 2024 national and provincial elections, which uses two principles: the analysis of voter behaviour patterns and the sequence in which voting results are announced on election day.

The CSIR’s CEO, Thulani Dlamini, said that their election prediction model is not a polling system, but a model that uses statistical and mathematical analysis to predict election outcomes. “It showcases how statistical clustering and mathematical algorithms can achieve good predictions from a small sample of results,” he said.

The 2024 South African national election results will start to trickle in after the voting stations close at 21:00 on 29 May 2024. South Africans can track the results via the IEC’s live elections results dashboard or many news publications with election dashboards.

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